DEWHURST TRENDS POINT TO RED DUKE

- Nine of the last 10 winners finished in the first three on their preceding start; seven were succesful.
- Five of the last 10 winners were unbeaten.
- Seven of the last 10 winners had already won a race at Group Three or above (three had won a Group One) and two of the exceptions had been placed in a Group One.
- Eight of the last 10 winners had won over seven furlongs or beyond.
- Three favourites have been successful but four winners have been returned between 20-1 & 33s.
- Eight of the last 10 winners made their debut after April.
- Nine of the last 10 winners had raced at least three times.
- Nine of the last 10 winners ran in a Group race on their preceding start, the exception ran in a sales race.
- Seven of the last 10 winners made a successful debut, those that were beaten made their debuts in April and May over 5 and 6 furlongs.

Summary

A couple of surprise results over the years and this year's field has a slightly unusual look to it in that very few of the runners are by sires renowned for imparting stamina; sons of Galileo have provided three of the last five winners but he has no representative in the nine runners. Beethoven (33-1) and Intense Focus (20-1) were both placed in Group One company and had had eight and nine starts whilst Group Three winner Milk It Mick (33-1) had had 11 starts.

Exciting pair Bronterre and Ektihaam fall down on a number of key trends as do Spiritual Star and Most Improved whilst Parish Hall has yet to win over seven furlongs although neither had Jim Bolger's Intense Focus nor Beethoven but both had been placed at the highest level unlike the Teofilo colt.

That just leaves National Stakes winner Power and the one-two from the Champagne Stakes and there's nothing to choose between the three of them on the stats whilst both races have provided two winners apiece, with New Approach and Teofilo successful at the Curragh and Rock Of Gibraltar and Milk It Mick beaten on Town Moor. Power is the clear form pick but it may be worth taking a chance that RED DUKE can emulate the latter pair.

Little has gone right for John Quinn's colt on his last two starts and he may be able to prove himself better than the bare form whilst the progeny of first season sire Hard Spun (top-class between 7 & 10f) appear to stay well which brings us back to where we came in.

Oasis Dream (Power's sire) has of course sired winners at all distances but those that stay well are often from stouter distaff families than the National Stakes winner so Power could just be worth taking on whilst it's also worth noting that the four winning favourites were all sent off at 6-4 or shorter.

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