SENTRY READY FOR CES DUTY

- Winners have been aged 3, 4 (two), 5, 6 (three), 7, 8 and 11.
- Winners have carried between 7-13 and 9-8 with five between 7-13 and 8-8.
- Winners have been rated between 83 and 104 with five between 92 and 98.
- Seven winners had been drawn between 1 & 10 with five between 1 & 4.
- Nine winners were returned between 9-2 and 16-1 with two favourites successful.
- Seven winners finished in the first four on their previous outing under either code.
- Seven winners had won a class 3 handicap or above over 1m 6f - the last four had all won a class 2 handicap over 2 miles.
- Nine winners had raced between 2 and 7 times during the current season; none had raced more.
- Six winners had failed to win a race during the current season.
- Nine winners had won a race with a field of 14 runners or more (under either code).

Miscellaneous

Five renewals have gone to trainer's more readily associated with NH racing including all three winners that hadn't previously scored over two miles on the Flat whilst three winners have been apprentice ridden.

Two of the last three winners had previously run in the Cesarewitch (finishing 2nd and 7th) whilst all of the last three winners had contested the Brown Jack Stakes at Ascot (won by Keys) earlier in the season where they finished 2/1/5.

Three winners had run in the Ascot Stakes and four in the Northumberland Plate.

Summary

An emerging trend has been winning form in a class two handicap over two miles with five of the last six having done so and the exception, Detroit City, was placed in a Listed race over a mile seven before being sold to go hurdling. He was also the only winner not to have raced during the current Flat season having been absent since winning a Grade One hurdle at Aintree in April.

A more constant trend has been the benefit of a low (previously high) draw although the Cambridgeshire proved how quickly a herd-like mentality can erode any advantage on that front.

Only eight runners in the field boast winning form at the requisite level and, of those, five (Cosimo De Medici, Dayia, Dazinski, Keys, Veiled) have an historically bad draw to overcome.

Fortune has favoured SENTRY DUTY, Palomar and Bernie The Bolt on that score whilst the first two named also ran in the race 12 months ago as had two of the three previous winners including the 11 year old Caracciola who was trained, like Sentry Duty, by Nicky Henderson. As well as being well drawn, the nine year old hails from the most successful rating band and has winning form in a large field unlike Andrew Balding's runner whilst he looks certain to be sent off at around the same price as a 'typical' Ces winner unlike the other pair although none of the three can boast a top-four finish on their latest start.

Keys has form in a large field and comes straight from the Ascot handicap that all of the last three winners have contested (Colour Vision, L Frank Baum and Dayia were behind) but he has to overcome a lack of experience as well as his high draw. The trends-busting Darley Sun besides, the other nine winners had raced at least 13 times and Roger Charlton's gelding has had just the eight starts under both codes and that's two fewer than David Simcock's charge.

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