martes, 16 de agosto de 2011

PRAY FOR RAIN AT 25/1


Aidan O'Brien could be set for a big day with Await The Dawn and Seville prohibitively priced favourites for the feature races on day one of the York Ebor Festival.

Both have solid chances but the pair are priced accordingly and though I couldn't take them on I wouldn't be wading in on a lumpy double either.

Instead I'll look to the bookends of the card with the opening Symphony Group Handicap a race I particularly want to get my teeth into.

The market leaders look vulnerable here with Ritual flopping at Ascot last time and Ancient Cross beaten the last twice at York off 5lb-lower marks.

There is a decent chance of one going in at a big price in this contest and the outsider I want on my side is RAIN DELAYED at 25/1.

He's presumably that price because he carries top weight from stall 16 but I'm not convinced a stands rail draw is such a bad place to be and with plenty of pace up the middle Tom Queally could well drop him in anyway.

He is usually held up and I reckon that style of racing could well benefit in this contest with Fitz Flyer, Favourite Girl and Falasteen all speedballs drawn centrally.

I don't think his weight is an issue either as the last twice he has run in a handicap he's carried either the biggest load or the second biggest - and both times he finished half a length second to Noble Storm.

They were both off handicap marks of 99 (he races off 101 here) and the first of those came at this meeting two years ago, with his latest handicap effort at Newbury in April.

All of his other starts have come at Listed and Group class - his last two efforts coming in those grades behind Masamah here and in a Group 2 at Goodwood.

He tends to run on well off a fast pace over five furlongs so the extra distance here should suit and dropped in grade he looks sure to go well at big odds.

I also cannot resist a small bet on FACE THE PROBLEM at 12/1 as he is another who should benefit from a furious gallop.

He looked a smart juvenile last year with gate to wire successes here and at Thirsk but he probably hasn't got the early speed to repeat that manner of victory these days.

He struggled when tried at pattern level and was rated 108 at one stage but he's back down to a mark of 89 now and that looks a competitive one for him judged by his run at Windsor last time.

He was hampered early but finished his race really well down the outside and his turn might not be far away.

With Silvestre De Sousa booked and stall six an ideal berth to track the pace down the middle he looks worth chancing at around 12/1.

Finally, WORLD HERITAGE looks worth a bet in the closing Patrington Haven Leisure Park Handicap.

He was a decent horse for Pascal Bary and finished second in the Prix Eugene Adam two years ago.

Robert Eddery has struggled a little with him since he came into his yard but the signs last time were good in a handicap at Newmarket where he raced with his old zest off a mark of 95.

Down a further 1lb here he could be primed to strike and is worth a small bet at 20s.

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