martes, 16 de agosto de 2011

TWICE OVER NOT OUT OF IT


Await The Dawn

Sole defeat in six starts came in the Champagne Stakes as a juvenile when he failed to give his running. Made a belated winning return in August last year and marked himself down as a potential top-notcher next time out in a Group Three. Has maintained his upward curve this season with easy wins in a Group Three and Group Two (form solid but not spectacular) and has earned the chance to prove his credentials at the highest level.

Twice Over

Triple Group One winner who was beaten half a length by Rip Van Winkle 12 months ago. Initially struggled to recapture top-form after disappointing in the Dubai World Cup in March but drop in grade over this C&D worked the oracle last time despite the race not being run to suit. Has rarely run with cut in the ground but this solid top tier performer should give his running providing conditions don't ease dramatically. Partnered by Ian Mongan for the first time.

Windsor Palace

All-weather maiden winner who has been employed as a pacemaker for So You Think the last twice and likely to take up those duties again.

Zafisio

Heavy ground Group One winner as a juvenile at Saint-Cloud and gained his next success at that track the following November in a Group Three before following up at the same level over ten furlongs in Frankfurt. Beaten a long way on sole start in 2010 and holds no realistic chance but will pick up a decent prize if completing the course.

Midday

A record breaking third consecutive win in the Nassau Stakes last time took her Group One tally to six but all of those successes have been achieved against her own sex. However, she was only beaten a length by St Nicholas Abbey in the Coronation Stakes when some observers felt she made her challenge too far from home and this likeable mare, who hasn't finished outside the first three since 2008, is unlikely to be far away.

Roderic O'Connor

Made rapid strides towards the end of his juvenile season, finishing second to Frankel in the Dewhurst before winning a French Group One. Flopped on his return behind Frankel at Newmarket but bounced back to form when making all in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Subsequently disappointing in the French and Irish Derbys and plenty to prove as a result but has shown his best form when allowed to dominate and could have the opportunity to do so here.

Summary

It wouldn't be a huge surprise to see a better performance from Roderic O'Connor given that he could enjoy the run of the race although he has a good deal to find and the form of his Guineas win hasn't worked out.

Stablemate Await The Dawn heads the market and has looked a Group One horse in the making since bursting onto the scene with a nine length success in the Kilternan Stakes last September.

He is, however, a short enough price given that this is his first start against proven Group One performers and that the 12 horses he has beaten - albeit impressively - have only managed one Listed win and a Group Three between them from 14 subsequent starts.

It's a little surprising to see Midday shorter in the betting than Twice Over and it seems more than likely that Tom Queally rides the mare in preference to the colt as she is not as straightforward as her stablemate and takes a little knowing.

Twice Over has never really captured the public's imagination despite winning two Champion Stakes and, if he runs up to the form of last year's second, he should expose any chinks in the favourite's armour.

However, he has always looked vulnerable to something right out of the top-drawer which Await The Dawn could be.

In short, there appears to be little edge in the market although, if push came to shove, Twice Over would get the nod at his current price of 5-1 with the jolly odds-on.

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