martes, 16 de agosto de 2011

TWICE OVER GETS INTERNATIONAL VOTE



Wednesday's Juddmonte International Stakes at York looks a very strong renewal - not so much numerically but there are some very good horses in the field.

Sir Henry Cecil is doubly represented by his superb filly Midday, who won her third Nassau Stakes last time at Goodwood, and by Twice Over, who was runner-up in this race 12 months ago when narrowly beaten by Rip Van Winkle.

He returned to something like his best form over course and distance last time and some of that race is working out quite well.

He had a little lull in between running in the Dubai World Cup and that race at York last time but if he is back to his best then Twice Over could go very close again.

It is very hard to choose between him and Midday as they have similar ratings and are of similar quality but If Twice Over is back to his best, he could just have the edge over his stablemate.

The big rivals are the Aidan O'Brien pair Await The Dawn and Roderic O' Connor, who have a pacemaker in Windsor Palace.

Await The Dawn is being aimed at the Breeders' Cup Classic at the end of the year and was a very impressive winner at Chester on his reappearance before he followed up in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Connections were a little worried before the Hardwicke Stakes about too much cut in the ground and the going at York is currently good to soft so I just wonder whether he will be suited by conditions - he is also dropping back in trip as well and is up in class.

He is a horse of immense potential but still has to prove it at this very high level so I am going to pass him over on this occasion and opt for Twice Over just ahead of Midday.

The Great Voltigeur Stakes is a trial for the Ladbrokes St Leger at Doncaster and was won last year by Rewilding.

This year's race is dominated by Aidan O'Brien's Seville, who has got much the best form coming into the event.

He was second on the course earlier in the season behind Carlton House in the Dante Stakes then blew out in the Epsom Derby but has subsequently run second to stablemate Treasure Beach in the Irish Derby.

He was also second to Meandre in the Grand Prix de Paris and that form really stands out so I expect him to endorse his claims for the St Leger here.

Namibian could be the big danger as he is incredibly tough and really impressed in terms of his attitude when winning the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot and then following up in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood.

The unexposed Sea Moon won a handicap on the course off a rating of 92 earlier in the season and clearly has to step up a good deal on that but is highly regarded and very well bred out of the family of past St Leger winner Brian Boru.

Alkazeem and Thimaar are also open to a good deal of improvement but as things stand, they all have a long way to go to match the credentials of Seville and he looks a worthy favourite.

LOOK TO REGENT STREET FOR VALUE


A powerful Irish presence is expected throughout the four day of York's Ebor meeting and Await The Dawn is widely expected to get the meeting off to a perfect start for Aidan O'Brien by landing the featured Juddmonte International Stakes on Wednesday.

The four-year-old indicated that he was a Group 1 winner in waiting when he recorded a hugely impressive victroy in a Leopardstown Group 3 last September. In two starts this term he has reinforced that impression with commanding victories at Chester and, most recently, in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Await The Dawn faces his biggest test to date in the Juddmonte though where he takes on a field headed by Midday and Twice Over. The latter rediscovered some form to score ver this course and distance last month but it is Midday who looks the biggest threat to the favourite. She bounced back to her very best to win the Nassau Stakes last time and another strong showing is expected from the Henry Cecil star.

Await The Dawn could well have further room for improvement and might just shade the verdict but at the likely odds this is a race to watch as opposed to get heavily involved in.

Aidan O'Brien has a couple of other very strong chances on the card and his Furner's Green is the selection in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes.

The Dylan Thomas colt made quite an impression on his debut at Tipperary last month when he ran out a clear cut winner of an extended seven furlongs maiden. That performance marked him out as one ready to hold his own in a higher grade and he could take some beating here.

The form of Furner's Green maiden win wasn't done any harm by Battle Of Saratoga and East Meets West, who both line up here, in a Listed race at Tipperary recently. They were second and fourth to Furner's Green in that aforementioned maiden and stepped forward to finish second and third in that Tiperary Listed race. East Meets West looked especially unlucky there as he was denied a run for most of the straight and with a clear passage he would have won.

In the Great Voltigeur Stakes Seville must have every chance of cementing his credentials as a leading hope for next month's Ladbrokes St Leger.

The Ballydoyle inmate followed a fine second in the Irish Derby with a cracking effort in the Grand Prix de Paris where he was only reeled in late on. That level of form is by some way the best on offer and he will take a good deal of beating.

The value here though could lie with stablemate Regent Street. He does not deserve to be the outsider of the field and has the capacity to reach the frame.

Quite possibly he found the two miles of the Queen's Vase beyond him last time while his two previous efforts stand up to close scrutiny. In May he was a good third to Recital and Memphis Tennessee in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial and the previous month he lost very little in defeat when going down to Banimpire in the Ballysax Stakes.

His best form gives him a credible chance and it would come as no surprise to see him challenge for a place in the frame.

Recommendations:

2.30: Furner's Green 2pts win

3.05: Regent Street 1pt e/w

EAGLES HAS YET TO PEAK


14:00 Symphony Group Handicap

The ground may have dried out by post time but low to middle numbers are still likely to be suited which could rule out Ritual, though he was very disappointing at Ascot anyway. Ancient Cross, who loves it around here, is another with a high draw to contend with as is KANAF, though the latter, a very good winner at Ascot early last month, could grab a middle position and looks the potential winner after an unlucky run in the Steward's Cup. Strike Up The Band gained his first success in three years at Haydock and is only 2lb higher. He's well drawn and could prove a threat as could Irish Heartbeat, who would be a fancied if the going remains on the soft side. The three-year-old Face The Problem hasn't had much racing but is back on the mark that saw him land a Thirsk nursery last year and Silvestre De Sousa is an intriguing booking.

14:30 sportingbet.com Acomb Stakes

Aidan O'Brien arrives here mob-handed but FURNER'S GREEN looks the one to be on as he comfortably beat today's rival Battle Of Saratoga on his debut on ground with some give at Tipperary and has entries in all the major juvenile events. Balty Boys showed some debut promise and gave notice of much more to come with an impressive success over Firestarter at Newbury. Zumbi is another with plenty of scope and made a very promising debut at Ascot as did the expensive Entifaadha at Newmarket where he beat a huge field. Archbishop and Moon Pearl also made successful starts and could be anything but the main threat may emerge from Al Khan, who was always travelling very well at Doncaster and looks to have a bright future.

15:05 sportingbet.com Great Voltigeur Stakes

There have been three surprise results in the past five years in this top St Leger trial. SEVILLE, runner-up to Carlton House in the Dante here, put a poor Epsom performance behind him with superb runs in the Irish Derby and Grand Prix De Paris. He'll enjoy a little cut in the ground more than most and will take some beating. Sea Moon landed a handicap from a mark of 92 over 1m2f here in June and that form would be nowhere near good enough for this but he's always been highly regarded and that was a stepping-stone to bigger and better things. Namibian has stepped out of handicaps to land Group 3's at Ascot and Goodwood and is a rapidly improving colt who has to be on the short-list while if there is to be a surprise it could be provided by Al Kazeem, whose four runs to date have all been at Newbury but who has an outstanding middle-distance pedigree and should be suited by the step-up in trip.

15:40 Juddmonte International Stakes

Short-priced favourites have won the last four of these and AWAIT THE DAWN is likely to start odds-on for this. Aidan O'Brien's colt stepped up to 1m4f for the first time in the Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot where the soft ground was thought to be against him but he relished the conditions and looked a certain future Group 1 winner in the process. Stablemate Roderic O'Connor is already a winner at the highest grade having landed the Irish 1000 Guineas but he hasn't done as well in the Derbies at Chantilly and the Curragh subsequently. Midday and Twice Over represent Sir Henry Cecil and the pair are multiple winners at this level. The former, who loves the track, could just prove the better of the pair with her allowance and she looks a big threat to the likely favourite.

16:15 sportingbet.com Nursery

Tim Easterby has won this twice in the past few years but Nearly A Gift has been handed the highest draw which could rule her out. Cravat was carrying a big weight when just touched off at Catterick and looks best of the Mark Johnston pair as Es Que Love has been poorly treated in the draw. Mister Musicmaster has done well since encountering soft ground but an 8lb rise for his Haydock victory could prove his undoing and it's difficult to know what to make of Lunar Deity, who landed a Ffos Las maiden in a canter when totally unfancied. Satanic Beat is the only C&D winner and can go well but this can go to SANAD, a disappointment on his debut at Doncaster but an impressive maiden winner at Nottingham and starting his handicap career from what could prove to be a very lenient mark. Campanology is already useful and with the best of the draw looks sure to prove a threat while West Leake Hare was caught on the line over 7f at Goodwood and is another with chances.

16:50 Patrington Haven Leisure Park Handicap

Sir Michael Stoute has won this three times in recent years and though three-year-olds don't have the best of records EAGLES PEAK can put matters right. A superbly bred son of Galileo out of a Group 2 winner, he showed battling qualities to beat subsequent winner Thimaar on his debut in what looked a very hot Newmarket maiden last month and he could prove a blot on the handicap. Barren Brook has suddenly found his form and a 3lb rise for landing a tough Doncaster handicap looks lenient and he should go well under Kieren Fallon who deserts the increasingly temperamental Naqshabban, who refused to enter the stalls again last time. Arlequin is well regarded which is hardly surprising given his fine victory at Goodwood where the consistent Our Joe Mac was third and he's won over this C&D in the past. All of Ithoughtitwasover's four runs to date have been over 1m4f and he's won twice. He was probably a little unfortunate not to beat Parlour Games in the Shergar Cup Classic at Ascot and he looks well treated.

TWICE OVER NOT OUT OF IT


Await The Dawn

Sole defeat in six starts came in the Champagne Stakes as a juvenile when he failed to give his running. Made a belated winning return in August last year and marked himself down as a potential top-notcher next time out in a Group Three. Has maintained his upward curve this season with easy wins in a Group Three and Group Two (form solid but not spectacular) and has earned the chance to prove his credentials at the highest level.

Twice Over

Triple Group One winner who was beaten half a length by Rip Van Winkle 12 months ago. Initially struggled to recapture top-form after disappointing in the Dubai World Cup in March but drop in grade over this C&D worked the oracle last time despite the race not being run to suit. Has rarely run with cut in the ground but this solid top tier performer should give his running providing conditions don't ease dramatically. Partnered by Ian Mongan for the first time.

Windsor Palace

All-weather maiden winner who has been employed as a pacemaker for So You Think the last twice and likely to take up those duties again.

Zafisio

Heavy ground Group One winner as a juvenile at Saint-Cloud and gained his next success at that track the following November in a Group Three before following up at the same level over ten furlongs in Frankfurt. Beaten a long way on sole start in 2010 and holds no realistic chance but will pick up a decent prize if completing the course.

Midday

A record breaking third consecutive win in the Nassau Stakes last time took her Group One tally to six but all of those successes have been achieved against her own sex. However, she was only beaten a length by St Nicholas Abbey in the Coronation Stakes when some observers felt she made her challenge too far from home and this likeable mare, who hasn't finished outside the first three since 2008, is unlikely to be far away.

Roderic O'Connor

Made rapid strides towards the end of his juvenile season, finishing second to Frankel in the Dewhurst before winning a French Group One. Flopped on his return behind Frankel at Newmarket but bounced back to form when making all in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Subsequently disappointing in the French and Irish Derbys and plenty to prove as a result but has shown his best form when allowed to dominate and could have the opportunity to do so here.

Summary

It wouldn't be a huge surprise to see a better performance from Roderic O'Connor given that he could enjoy the run of the race although he has a good deal to find and the form of his Guineas win hasn't worked out.

Stablemate Await The Dawn heads the market and has looked a Group One horse in the making since bursting onto the scene with a nine length success in the Kilternan Stakes last September.

He is, however, a short enough price given that this is his first start against proven Group One performers and that the 12 horses he has beaten - albeit impressively - have only managed one Listed win and a Group Three between them from 14 subsequent starts.

It's a little surprising to see Midday shorter in the betting than Twice Over and it seems more than likely that Tom Queally rides the mare in preference to the colt as she is not as straightforward as her stablemate and takes a little knowing.

Twice Over has never really captured the public's imagination despite winning two Champion Stakes and, if he runs up to the form of last year's second, he should expose any chinks in the favourite's armour.

However, he has always looked vulnerable to something right out of the top-drawer which Await The Dawn could be.

In short, there appears to be little edge in the market although, if push came to shove, Twice Over would get the nod at his current price of 5-1 with the jolly odds-on.

LOCAL TRAINERS CAN RULE KNAVESMIRE



FALASTEEN should be backed each-way in the Symphony Group Handicap at 1400.

Kevin Ryan's sprinter went close at the track two starts back before running a blinder in the Epsom Dash, despite finding himself further back than normal.

Often ridden aggresively, he has proven in the past that York is an ideal course ( Knavesmire form figures read 1 5 11 2) and this trip of just beyond five furlongs should suit him down to the ground.

He's drawn next to some very speedy horses so doesn't have to lead but, granted a break after Epsom, he should be ready to run a very big race despite a career-high mark.

The sportingbet.com Nursery at 1615 is very competitive, but NEARLY A GIFT is another each-way selection.

Tim Easterby has a good record in the race and this Tagula filly should relish a little bit of cut in the ground.

Normally a Pontefract maiden winner who is allotted a mark of 82 might not be of too much interest, but she showed at Newmarket on her nursery debut that she can win off that sort of mark and she is only 2lbs higher today.

She didn't seem to act in the dip at HQ last time and should be more at home on this track. There may be one or two better treated than her but we know she has the ability to run into a place at least.

INGLEBY SPIRIT is yet another each-way selection, this time in the Patrington Haven Leisure Park Handicap at 1650.

Richard Fahey's gelding was passed over by Paul Hanagan when victorious at Pontefract first-time up this season and the same happens today, but that's no bad thing as super-sub Barry McHugh takes the reins again.

Following his win he seemed to resent Epsom's unique track, but then ran ok here under apprentice Laura Barry despite a poor draw. Again at Redcar last time he wasn't well-berthed however a draw of six today looks ideal.

He should relish the bit of cut in the ground and his new mark of 90, just 4lbs higher than at Pontefract, should enable him to get very competitive indeed.

Recommended bets

Falasteen e.w. in 1400 York

Nearly A Gift e.w. in 1615 York

Ingleby Spirit e.w. in 1650 York

CARROLL ENJOYS MUSSELBURGH DOUBLE


Yorkshire handler Declan Carroll had a highly successful day at Musselburgh with his two runners at the Scottish track both emerging victorious.

First top-weight Green Park was produced late by Neil Farley to land the Daily Record Handicap.

The 10-1 shot could be spotted making good progress down the stands side rail and once the split came he was well able to take it, picking up to beat market leader Blown It by half a length.

"He travelled into the race very well and I just had to wait for the gap to open," said Farley.

"Thankfully it opened at just the right time and I was able to produce him right on the line.

"He's run a couple of good races this year and he was on-song today. He's done it well and I'm very pleased.

"The rain was important to him as he's a horse who needs cover and a bit of dig in the ground."

Trainer and jockey went on to double up with 7-2 favourite Whats For Pudding in the Scottish Racing Your Better Bet Handicap.

PJ McDonald was given a one-day careless ban (August 30) for his ride on Tongalooma behind Green Park, but went on to gain some compensation by cruising to victory on board Silver Tigress (5-4) in the TurfTV Handicap for George Moore.

McDonald said: "She's done it very easily and she's improving all the time.

"I think the more she steps up in trip, the better she'll get.

"She's come to hand with every run that she's had and while I'm not saying she'll be a superstar, there is no reason she shouldn't be able to step up a grade in these staying races and be competitive."

A return to Musselburgh saw the Keith Dalgleish-trained 12-1 shot Chookie Hamilton open his account for the campaign in the Watch Racing UK On Sky 432 Handicap.

The seven-year-old has had plenty of different homes down the years but has now won at this Edinburgh venue five times after scoring under Paul Hanagan.

Hanagan went on to further stretch his lead in this year's jockeys' title race by guiding Bolodenka (4-6) to victory in the Racing UK Classified Claiming Stakes.

His title rival Silvestre de Sousa picked up a one-day suspension (August 30) in the race for using his whip with excessive frequency on runner-up Greyfriarschorista.

First Fast Now finally put five consecutive seconds behind her when getting off the mark in the Scottish Racing Maiden Auction Stakes.

Speaking to Racing UK, winning trainer Nigel Tinkler said of his 2-1 favourite: "She's won well and she'll probably have an easy fortnight now.

"I hope she can win a nursery. She was rated 68 before today which is probably just high enough for her, but I'd hope she would train on next year too, as she's so tough and genuine."

Mel Brittain's Carragold (3-1) is clearly in good heart, landing the East Lothian Pipers Handicap just six days after scoring at Beverley.

STRONG GODOLPHIN TEAM HEAD TO YORK


Simon Crisford hopes a strong Godolphin team can make their mark at the Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor Festival.

Two-time Classic heroine Blue Bunting is among nine horses declared for the Group One Darley Yorkshire Oaks, while Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Cherry Hinton Stakes scorer Gamilati contests the Group Two Jaguar Cars Lowther Stakes.

Crisford said: "Blue Bunting runs in the Darley Yorkshire Oaks. She has done well since the Irish Oaks and we are very pleased with her.

"The mile and a half on the Knavesmire should suit her. She is a dual Classic winner and we've got to go there with her."

Blue Bunting's opposition includes Banimpire and Wonder Of Wonders, second and third respectively in the Darley Irish Oaks and four-time Group One winner Snow Fairy.

Gamilati beat a strong field when breaking her maiden in the Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newmarket last time out and she'll bid to gain a second Group-race victory in Thursday's six-furlong event for high-class juvenile fillies.

Crisford added: "Gamilati runs in the Lowther Stakes and she is in great form. She won the Cherry Hinton in very good fashion and since then her form has been boosted by Discourse, our filly that beat her on her previous run, coming out and winning the Sweet Solera. So her form looks strong."

The daughter of Bernardini is forced to carry a 3lb penalty for her previous success as does one of her rivals Best Terms, winner of the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Another notable runner this week at York for the 'Boys in Blue' is Lost In The Moment who is vying for favouritism with sponsors for the Betfred Ebor Handicap run for the first time on Saturday.

The son of Danehill Dancer was only just touched off in the Group 2 Goodwood Cup last time out and has form on the track having finished third to Green Destiny in the John Smith's Cup in July.

Crisford said: "He just got beaten in the Goodwood Cup but demonstrated there that day that these sort of distances suit him well. He had trouble in running but finished his race very strongly.

"He comes into the race officially well in - his rating has gone up since these weights were announced - and his run at Goodwood established him as a firm contender for this race."

Biondetti represents Godolphin in the nine-furlong Group Three Skybet Mobile Strensall Stakes on Friday. The three-year-old returned from a long lay-off to be second in a Group 3 in France last time out. Prior to that, his juvenile form reads very well, including a top-level success over a mile in Italy.

Crisford added: "Biondetti had his first run for a while in France and he has come out of it well. I think that will have brought him on a fair bit."

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