miércoles, 10 de agosto de 2011

FRANKEL: ROAD TO GREATNESS


Frankel's rating now (142), post-Sussex Stakes, is exactly the same as it was after the 2000 Guineas.

That may surprise some people, but the point is that we took an exceptionally high view of his performance at Newmarket, convinced that he achieved something very special there, confirming impressions from his two-year-old campaign, when we had him rated out on his own amongst his generation.

That's also why, at the adjusted weights for the Sussex, we had Frankel as much as 10 lb ahead of Canford Cliffs going into the race; in short, Frankel did at Goodwood more or less what we expected him to.

The temptation for us here at Timeform was to rate Frankel even higher after his breathtaking display in the Sussex Stakes, but we're conscious of the fact that the circumstances of the Goodwood race weren't conducive to giving Frankel any more credit than we already had, for two major reasons.

Firstly, there was little support from the overall time of the Sussex Stakes, because of the small field and steady early pace whereby Frankel found himself in front by default rather than necessarily by design - Frankel has posted some astounding time performances in his career which gave us the confidence to rate him so highly, chiefly the Guineas, but Goodwood wasn't one of those occasions.

And secondly, as much as Timeform was firmly in the Frankel camp ahead of Goodwood, we weren't blind to the fact that Canford Cliffs wasn't at his own brilliant best on the day.

If we believed that Canford Cliffs was at his peak at Goodwood, then we'd already be talking now as Frankel being the greatest racehorse ever in Timeform's experience, but there's time yet for Frankel to show that himself, and our assessment that Canford Cliffs' performance in the Sussex Stakes was around 5lbs below what he's capable of seems all the more reasonable after the recent announcement of his retirement due to an injury reportedly sustained in the race.

Canford Cliffs retires to stud as one of the all-time great milers in Timeform's opinion (rated 133), as testified by his winning record including five Group 1s in a row; it's simply that he was taking on something extraordinary in Frankel for his final race.

Since Timeform began in 1948, there have been only three Flat racehorses rated higher than Frankel, namely Brigadier Gerard, Tudor Minstrel (both 144) and Sea-Bird (145). The question is, can Frankel become the best ever in Timeform's experience?

The answer is yes.

It's unlikely he'll prove the point outright this season, due to have only one more run in the QEII, which will be a formality for him, but the hugely exciting news is that he'll be kept in training as a four-year-old, and maybe then he'll be able to show what we at Timeform believe - that Frankel has more ability than any other Flat horse in Timeform's history.

Obviously, for him to usurp Sea-Bird at the top of the all-time ratings list, Frankel is largely dependent on the quality of opposition against him, and it may be that he'll need to go beyond a mile to take on the championship middle-distance horses in order to fully prove his worth.

The encouraging aspect with him, as well as what helps us from a handicapping perspective, is that time and again Frankel has shown himself capable of winning by a wide margin, from last year in the Royal Lodge Stakes (by ten lengths) to this year in the Guineas (six lengths) and again at Goodwood (five lengths).

If Frankel can slam one of the 'big guns' over ten furlongs next year, then there's every chance he'll achieve a rating in excess of 145, thereby earning the title of Timeform's greatest ever racehorse.

He's very nearly there now.

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